Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.01.2025 - EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips...

17.01.2025 09:13 AM

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 17. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0282 price level in the afternoon coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming this as a valid entry point. As a result, the pair dropped about 15 points before the pressure on the dollar eased.

One key factor likely to influence market reactions today is the Eurozone inflation rate, particularly core inflation. If the data comes in below expectations, it could signal a slowdown in economic activity, which would negatively impact the euro's exchange rate. Investors focused on these metrics may adjust their positions, potentially leading to a weakening of the euro against the dollar.

Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, it might heighten economic tensions. In this scenario, the European Central Bank may need to reconsider its plans for further rate cuts, possibly delaying the easing process. This situation would support the euro as market participants factor in tighter monetary policy into their forecasts.

Additionally, the Eurozone's current account balance figures released by the ECB will also influence the markets. An increase in the balance could indicate a healthy trade surplus, strengthening the euro against other currencies. Conversely, negative balance data could suggest a deficit in external payments, weakening the euro.

For intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.0313 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.0340. At the 1.0340 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect euro growth in the first half of the day only after favorable data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0290 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to 1.0313 and 1.0340 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0290 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0269. At this level, I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0313 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the 1.0290 and 1.0269 levels can be expected.

Chart Notes

Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

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Forecast

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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